With a considerable energy endowment, coupled with its still important military power, international connections and influences, Russia has taken on increased strategic importance from both an economic and a geopolitical perspective.
For decades Russia, as the dominant part of the Soviet Union, was indisputably a superpower. The reality today is very different. With a population of 145 million, Russia has about as many inhabitants as Pakistan (which like Russia possess nuclear weapons), and an economy which is about the size of Netherlands (population 16 million). Russia has gone through tough changes since the break up of the Soviet Union.
The country now faces complex economic, political, social and environmental challenges, and stakeholders need to be aware of Russia’s possible futures.
It is thus appropriate to ask whether Russia is on a path of decline, or if it can turn itself around. These scenarios aim to illuminate what could happen to Russia over the next two decades.
To gain a better understanding of Russia’sposition, along with the key trends and eventsthat might shape it in the next 20 years, theWorld Economic Forum set out to developscenarios on the future of Russia.The resulting scenarios are the joint creation of those who took part in the project—they go beyond the assumptions and perspectives held by any individual, interest group or organization.
Among the many challenges confronting Russia, two questions are key to how Russia will look in the next decades:
1.Will Russia be able to develop legitimate and effective governance, based on rule of law?
2.How effectively can Russia diversify its economy into a broad-based spectrum in the presence of extensive energy resources?
Long March describes a Russia that is still highly dependent on natural resources. Increasingly moderate and pragmatic conservatives make investments in oil infrastructure to leverage Russia’s natural resource endowment fully, while struggling to impose greater rule of law. International competitiveness remains limited in other sectors.
Oil’s Curse Russia continues to rely heavily on natural resources. Within a global context of high oil prices and strong demand for primary energy, the implementation of deep institutional reforms and investment in oil and public and infrastructure are ignored, in part due to ineffective leadership.
Vozrozhdenie ("Renaissance" in Russian) describes a Russia that implements a series of bold reforms under the leadership of a democratically elected President. These reforms lead to the economic, political and social rebirth of Russia.
For decades Russia, as the dominant part of the Soviet Union, was indisputably a superpower. The reality today is very different. With a population of 145 million, Russia has about as many inhabitants as Pakistan (which like Russia possess nuclear weapons), and an economy which is about the size of Netherlands (population 16 million). Russia has gone through tough changes since the break up of the Soviet Union.
The country now faces complex economic, political, social and environmental challenges, and stakeholders need to be aware of Russia’s possible futures.
It is thus appropriate to ask whether Russia is on a path of decline, or if it can turn itself around. These scenarios aim to illuminate what could happen to Russia over the next two decades.
To gain a better understanding of Russia’sposition, along with the key trends and eventsthat might shape it in the next 20 years, theWorld Economic Forum set out to developscenarios on the future of Russia.The resulting scenarios are the joint creation of those who took part in the project—they go beyond the assumptions and perspectives held by any individual, interest group or organization.
Among the many challenges confronting Russia, two questions are key to how Russia will look in the next decades:
1.Will Russia be able to develop legitimate and effective governance, based on rule of law?
2.How effectively can Russia diversify its economy into a broad-based spectrum in the presence of extensive energy resources?
Long March describes a Russia that is still highly dependent on natural resources. Increasingly moderate and pragmatic conservatives make investments in oil infrastructure to leverage Russia’s natural resource endowment fully, while struggling to impose greater rule of law. International competitiveness remains limited in other sectors.
Oil’s Curse Russia continues to rely heavily on natural resources. Within a global context of high oil prices and strong demand for primary energy, the implementation of deep institutional reforms and investment in oil and public and infrastructure are ignored, in part due to ineffective leadership.
Vozrozhdenie ("Renaissance" in Russian) describes a Russia that implements a series of bold reforms under the leadership of a democratically elected President. These reforms lead to the economic, political and social rebirth of Russia.
Scenario Planning
The Forum’s Scenario Planning team helps the Forum’s partners, members and stakeholders to better understand the dynamics and critical issues shaping the future at both the regional and the industry level, to communicate shared understanding and initiate dialogue and action internationally.
Contact: scenarios@weforum.org
The Forum’s Scenario Planning team helps the Forum’s partners, members and stakeholders to better understand the dynamics and critical issues shaping the future at both the regional and the industry level, to communicate shared understanding and initiate dialogue and action internationally.
Contact: scenarios@weforum.org
Russia Community
The Forum’s Regional teams bring together key decision-makers in regional and national activities to address the most critical issues facing a region or a country. The Forum will focus on the most important regional and global trends to understand how they affect an evermore interconnected world.
Contact: Russia@weforum.org
Contact: Russia@weforum.org
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