- By: LARRY JAGAN
- Published: 3/07/2009 at 12:00 AM
- Newspaper section: News
The United Nations secretary-general Ban Ki-moon arrives in Burma later today, just over a year since his last trip there.
He will be raising both political and humanitarian issues with the junta's top leader. But many critics and opposition politicians fear that it is a futile trip as the UN chief cannot expect to coax any significant concrete concessions from the generals during his visit.
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Mr Ban says he will be forcibly conveying the international community's concerns during his mission to Burma.
"The three most important issues [for Burma] at this juncture are the release of all political prisoners including Aung San Suu Kyi, the immediate resumption of dialogue between the government and opposition leaders, and creating an atmosphere conducive to holding credible elections," the UN chief told journalists in Tokyo before he headed off for Burma.
He also wants to "consolidate and build on" the humanitarian aid efforts that were established in the aftermath of last year's devastating Cyclone Nargis - the reason for his last visit to Burma in May 2008.
"We greatly hope that the Myanmar [Burmese] leaders will respond positively to the concerns of the international community during the UN secretary-general's visit," the secretary-general's special envoy to Burma, Ibrahim Gambari, said. The UN diplomat will be accompanying his boss on this trip.
During his two full days in the country, Mr Ban will meet Senior General Than Shwe, government ministers, including the prime minister, representatives of Aung San Suu Kyi's party the National League for Democracy (NLD) and leaders of the country's ethnic groups that have ceasefire arrangements with Burma's military regime, according to UN sources in New York.
The UN chief has also requested a meeting with the detained opposition leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, who is currently in Insein prison on trial for allegedly breaking the conditions of her house arrest. While they have not received any confirmation, UN officials believe it will be arranged after the UN chief meets Than Shwe in the Burmese capital, Naypyidaw.
Mr Ban will have two meetings with the junta leader, according to UN officials. The first will be a wide-ranging discussion on political and humanitarian issues. The second will be to follow up on some of the specific matters that were agreed on during the first session.
Mr Gambari cautions against raising expectations. "Nothing is guaranteed, but nothing will happen without a meeting with the senior general," the UN diplomat said.
While the UN chief will certainly be meeting Than Shwe, there is no certainty that he will come away with any concrete results, although UN officials involved in the planning of the visit remain hopeful.
While the opposition is certain Mrs Suu Kyi's release from prison is not one of them, the release of political prisoners may be something Than Shwe is prepared to offer.
"The SG [secretary-general] will be looking for a significant release of political prisoners during or after his visit," said a UN official who is involved in preparing for Mr Ban's trip but declined to be identified. "It will have to be several hundred for it to mean anything."
More than 20 political prisoners on the list Mr Gambari submitted to the regime on his visit last year were released. But, of course, since then scores more have been sentenced to long jail sentences. There are at least 2,150 political prisoners currently in Burmese jails, according to the Britain-based human rights group, Amnesty International.
On the planned elections in 2010, the next step in the government's road map to multi-party democracy, the UN chief will be trying to convince the regime to make it inclusive and credible.
"These elections must be transparent and democratic," Mr Ban told journalists in Tokyo on Wednesday.
This means allowing the NLD to participate without harassment and intimidation. Mr Ban will be reminding the junta leader that he promised Mr Gambari that the NLD would be allowed to contest the elections when the two met in Naypyidaw in November 2007.
"The key point Mr Ban will also be making, is that the regime has already invested a lot in the road map, and that they should take the next step to ensure the results they want - a credible election both nationally and internationally," an adviser to the UN on Burma told the Bangkok Post on condition of anonymity. The UN secretary-general knows that many of Burma's allies and neighbours are particularly concerned that the elections are not a sham as the referendum was, and as most opposition politicians fear. China, in particular, behind the scenes is encouraging Burma's military rulers to compromise and accept the support of the UN to make sure the elections are not simply dismissed by the opposition and most of the international community.
That will be easier said than done. For the NLD has made it clear the elections are not the issue - the constitution is the issue. This was drawn up without the involvement of the NLD and overwhelmingly passed in a referendum that was universally seen as a fraud. The NLD is demanding a constructional review, in which they are involved.
This is something the top general will not contemplate. He has made it clear the constitution - which in effect legitimises military rule in the form of a civilian administration - is non-negotiable. So the only real card Mr Ban has left is dialogue between the military regime and the pro-democracy parties, particularly the NLD. This has been the UN's main aim since the first resolution at the UN General Assembly 20 years ago and numerous special envoys. The hope is the secretary-general might be able to achieve something his envoys have not.
"This is not a make-or-break trip," Mr Gambari told the Bangkok Post. "The important thing is to keep the process of UN engagement in the country going, and, if possible strengthen and deepen it."
Perhaps a crucial concession has already been made by the regime. The authorities have already promised to allow him to "have an opportunity of giving a public speech to civil leaders, NGOs and diplomats", Mr Ban said.
This will be one of his last engagements before he boards the plane in Rangoon, according to a UN insider.
"If the trip goes well he can praise the government for their efforts; if it goes badly he can tell everyone what went wrong," the source said.
This is something that neither Bangladesh nor Sri Lanka allowed when the UN chief recently visited - for fear the government would not like what he said.
The pressure will be on the junta to make sure the trip is a relative success, for the last thing the regime wants at this stage is another public relations disaster.
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